Bimodal Characteristic Returns and Predictability Enhancement via Machine Learning

Robust Resampling Methods and Stock Returns Predictability

Predictability of Returns and Cash Flows ∗ Ralph

We review the literature on return and cash flow growth predictability form the perspective of the present-value identity. We focus predominantly on recent work. Our emphasis is on U.S. aggregate stock return predictability, but we also discuss evidence from other asset classes and countries. JEL classification: G10, G12, G14, G35.

Entropy and Predictability of Stock Market Returns¤

We examine the predictability of stock market returns by employing a new metric entropy measure of dependence with several desirable properties. We compare our results with a number of traditional measures. The metric entropy is capable of detecting nonlinear dependence within the returns series, and is also capable of detecting nonlinear\a±nity" between the returns and their predictions obtain...

Predictability in International Asset Returns: A Reexamination

This paper argues that inferring long-horizon asset-return predictability from the properties of vector autoregressive (VAR) models on relatively short spans of data is potentially unreliable. We illustrate the problems that can arise by re-examining the findings of Bekaert and Hodrick (1992), who detected evidence of in-sample predictability in international equity and foreign exchange markets...

Understanding the Predictability of Excess Returns∗

A seminal paper by Fama and Bliss (1987) showed that a simple regression model could explain a significant portion of 1-year ahead excess returns. Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005) showed that their regression model could explain a significantly large portion of excess returns than Fama and Bliss’ model and that a single return-forecasting factor essentially encompassed the predictability of excess ...